Program Overview
CES (Current Employment Statistics)
Methodology
The Current Employment
Statistics (CES) program is a federal-state cooperative effort between the
North Carolina Department of Commerce, Labor and Economic Analysis Division
(LEAD) and the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The
CES program provides monthly estimates of employment, hours, and earnings for
the Nation, State, and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA). Information is
derived from a monthly survey of employers conducted by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS). The CES survey is utilized to collect monthly employment,
hours, and earnings information from business establishment payroll records.
Monthly employment and wage
estimates are produced for the Nation, State and MSA for several different
industry groups; however, all data series are not available for all
geographies. Available employment and wage estimates include employment of all
employees, employment of female employees, average hours worked for all
employees, average weekly wages for all employees, average hourly wages for all
employees, employment for production workers, average hours worked per week for
production employees, average weekly wages for production employees, and average
hourly wages for production employees.
Estimates of employment in the
CES program refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any
part of the reference pay period that includes the 12th of the
month. Establishments are classified in industries based on the principal
activity or product produced in accordance with the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS). Employment estimates in the CES program relate
to the location of work rather than place of residence. Persons appearing on more
than one payroll are counted on each payroll.
BLS utilizes different
statistical techniques in the production of the CES estimates. Most employment
data are estimated using a “link relative” technique in which a ratio (link
relative) of current-month employment to that of the previous month is computed
from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of
employment for the current month are obtained by multiplying the estimates for
the previous month by these ratios.
For some employment series, the
sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases, a
model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample
estimates (described above), along with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data
to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models (Fay-Herriot Model
and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level being
estimated. For more detailed information about each model, please see the BLS
website https://www.bls.gov/sae/questions-and-answers.htm
Employment estimates are
subject to monthly and annual revisions. The annual revision is referred to as the
benchmark where in employment estimates are adjusted to a count of jobs as
derived mainly from employer Unemployment Insurance tax reports. The benchmark
information is utilized to adjust the monthly estimates between the new
benchmark and the preceding benchmark and to establish the level of employment for
the new benchmark month. This benchmark process establishes the level of
employment and the monthly sample is used to measure the month to month changes
in the level.
The CES program produces
Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted data series for the Nation and
State of North Carolina and for the Total Nonfarm MSA data series. All data
series are not available for all geographies. Seasonal adjustments help to
adjust data series changes that are attributable to normal seasonal variations.
CES estimates are based on a sample of employer survey responses and are
subject to sampling and other types of errors. The number of North Carolina
business establishments included in the CES sample is approximately 25,000
business establishments.
Additional information
regarding the CES program including data for other states and geographical
areas can be accessed on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website at https://www.bls.gov/sae/